Anomalous blocking over Greenland preceded the 2013 extreme early melt of local sea ice

The Arctic marine environment is undergoing a transition from thick multi-year to first-year sea ice cover with coincident lengthening of the melt season. Such changes are evident in the Baffin Bay-Davis Strait-Labrador Sea (BDL) region where melt onset has occurred ~8 days decade-1 earlier from 1979-2015. A series of anomalously early events has occurred since the mid-1990s, overlapping a period of increased upper-air ridging across Greenland and the northwestern North Atlantic. We investigate an extreme early melt event observed in spring 2013 below the 1981-2010 melt climatology), with respect to preceding sub-seasonal mid-tropospheric circulation conditions as described by a daily Greenland Blocking Index (GBI). The 40-days prior to the 2013 BDL melt onset are characterized by a persistent, strong 500 hPa anticyclone over the region (GBI >+1 on >75% of days). This circulation pattern advected warm air from northeastern Canada and the northwestern Atlantic poleward onto the thin, first-year sea ice and caused melt about 50 days earlier than normal. The episodic increase in the ridging atmospheric pattern near western Greenland as in 2013, exemplified by large positive GBI values, is an important recent process impacting the atmospheric circulation over a North Atlantic cryosphere undergoing accelerated regional climate change

Local- and Regional-Scale Forcing of Glacier Mass Balance Changes in the Swiss Alps

Glacier mass variations are climate indicators. Therefore, it is essential to examine both winter and summer mass balance variability over a long period of time to address climate-related ice mass fluctuations. In this study, we analyze glacier mass balance components and hypsometric characteristics with respect to their interactions with local meteorological variables and remote large-scale atmospheric and oceanic patterns. The results show that all selected glaciers have lost their equilibrium condition in recent decades, with persistent negative annual mass balance trends and decreasing accumulation area ratios (AARs), accompanied by increasing air temperatures of +0.45 C decade 1. The controlling factor of annual mass balance is mainly attributed to summer mass losses, which are correlated with (warming) June to September air temperatures. In addition, the interannual variability of summer and winter mass balances is primarily associated to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Greenland Blocking Index (GBI), and East Atlantic (EA) teleconnections. Although climate parameters are playing a significant role in determining the glacier mass balance in the region, the observed correlations and mass balance trends are in agreement with the hypsometric distribution and morphology of the glaciers. The analysis of decadal frontal retreat using Landsat images from 1984 to 2014 also supports the findings of this research, highlighting the impact of lake formation at terminus areas on rapid glacier retreat and mass loss in the Swiss Alps

A framework linking ecosystem services and human well‐being: Saltmarsh as a case study

1. The ecosystem services approach is based on the interdependencies between nature and human well‐being. However, while the ecosystem services aspect of this approach is well‐developed, the human well‐being aspect remains unstructured and vaguely defined. 2. An integrated conceptual framework was developed by adapting and linking the UK National Ecosystem Assessment‐Follow On framework with human well‐being domains. 3. As well as benefits, the notion of disbenefits was incorporated to recognise the potentially detrimental effects from interacting with nature. Benefits and disbenefits occur at the social–ecological interface and are classified by the seven domains of human well‐being they affect. 4. The framework is applied to saltmarsh habitat as a case study, highlighting knowledge gaps and the potential applicability and usefulness of the framework. In saltmarsh, benefits mainly accrue at larger scales with a greater impact affecting local to global individuals, while disbenefits tend to occur at a smaller scale and impact in‐situ individuals. 5. The framework provides in‐depth insight into links, trade‐offs and dichotomies between benefits and disbenefits and human well‐being, and improves accessibility to the complex research area of human well‐being. 6. This research can be a useful tool to guide environmental and health policy and management, as well as stakeholder engagement

Measuring Redshift-Space Distortions using Photometric Surveys

We outline how redshift-space distortions (RSD) can be measured from the angular correlation function w({\theta}), of galaxies selected from photometric surveys. The natural degeneracy between RSD and galaxy bias can be minimized by comparing results from bins with top-hat galaxy selection in redshift, and bins based on the radial position of galaxy pair centres. This comparison can also be used to test the accuracy of the photometric redshifts. The presence of RSD will be clearly detectable with the next generation of photometric redshift surveys. We show that the Dark Energy Survey (DES) will be able to measure f(z){\sigma}_8(z) to a 1{\sigma} accuracy of (17 {\times} b)%, using galaxies drawn from a single narrow redshift slice centered at z = 1. Here b is the linear bias, and f is the logarithmic rate of change of the linear growth rate with respect to the scale factor. Extending to measurements of w({\theta}) for a series of bins of width 0.02(1 + z) over 0.5 < z < 1.4 will measure {\gamma} to a 1{\sigma} accuracy of 25%, given the model f = {\Omega}_m(z)^{\gamma}, and assuming a linear bias model that evolves such that b = 0.5 + z (and fixing other cosmological parameters). The accuracy of our analytic predictions is confirmed using mock catalogs drawn from simulations conducted by the MICE collaboration.Comment: Accepted by MNRAS, revisions include fixing of typos and clarification of the tex

Spatiotemporal Analysis of the January Northern Hemisphere Circumpolar Vortex Over the Contiguous United States

January 2014 will be remembered for the sensationalized media usage of the term polar vortex which coincided with several polar air outbreaks. A United States polar vortex (USPV) perspective is presented to better understand the January spatial and temporal variability of this regional component of the Northern Hemisphere circumpolar vortex. Use of the monthly mean 5460 m isohypse to represent the location of the USPV extent and area revealed that the spatial features of the January 2014 USPV were not extreme relative to certain 1948–2013 Januaries. Furthermore, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American (PNA) Pattern, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are all linked to southernmost latitude of the USPV trough, but the PDO and PNA are most closely associated with the longitude at which this latitude occurs. The AO is closely related to the area of the United States enclosed within the USPV

Changes in and predictors of length of stay in hospital after surgery for breast cancer between 1997/98 and 2004/05 in two regions of England: a population-based

BACKGROUND Decreases in length of stay (LOS) in hospital after breast cancer surgery can be partly attributed to the change to less radical surgery, but many other factors are operating at the patient, surgeon and hospital levels. This study aimed to describe the changes in and predictors of length of stay (LOS) in hospital after surgery for breast cancer between 1997/98 and 2004/05 in two regions of England. METHODS Cases of female invasive breast cancer diagnosed in two English cancer registry regions were linked to Hospital Episode Statistics data for the period 1st April 1997 to 31st March 2005. A subset of records where women underwent mastectomy or breast conserving surgery (BCS) was extracted (n = 44,877). Variations in LOS over the study period were investigated. A multilevel model with patients clustered within surgical teams and NHS Trusts was used to examine associations between LOS and a range of factors. RESULTS Over the study period the proportion of women having a mastectomy reduced from 58% to 52%. The proportion varied from 14% to 80% according to NHS Trust. LOS decreased by 21% from 1997/98 to 2004/05 (LOSratio = 0.79, 95%CI 0.77-0.80). BCS was associated with 33% shorter hospital stays compared to mastectomy (LOSratio = 0.67, 95%CI 0.66-0.68). Older age, advanced disease, presence of comorbidities, lymph node excision and reconstructive surgery were associated with increased LOS. Significant variation remained amongst Trusts and surgical teams. CONCLUSION The number of days spent in hospital after breast cancer surgery has continued to decline for several decades. The change from mastectomy to BCS accounts for only 9% of the overall decrease in LOS. Other explanations include the adoption of new techniques and practices, such as sentinel lymph node biopsy and early discharge. This study has identified wide variation in practice with substantial cost implications for the NHS. Further work is required to explain this variation

Greenland Ice Sheet late-season melt: investigating multi-scale drivers of K-transect events

One consequence of recent Arctic warming is an increased occurrence and longer seasonality of above-freezing air temperature episodes.There is significant disagreement in the literature concerning potential physical connectivity between high-latitude open water duration proximate to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and unseasonal (i.e. late summer and autumn) GrIS melt events. Here, a new date of sea ice advance (DOA) product is used to determine the occurrence of Baffin Bay sea ice growth along Greenland’s west coast for the 2011–2015 period. For the unseasonal melt period preceding the DOA, northwest Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric conditions are analyzed and linked to unseasonal melt events observed at a series of on-ice automatic weather stations (AWS) along the K-transect in southwest Greenland. Mesoscale and synoptic influences on the above and below freezing surface air temperature events are assessed through analyses of AWS wind, pressure, and humidity observations. These surface observations are further compared against Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2), and ERA-Interim reanalysis fields to understand the airmass origins and (thermo)dynamic drivers of the melt events. Results suggest that the K-transect late season, ablation zone melt events are strongly affected by ridging atmospheric circulation patterns that transport warm, moist air from the sub-polar North Atlantic toward west Greenland. While thermal conduction and advection off south Baffin Bayopen waters impact coastal air temperatures, consistent with previous studies, marine air incursions from Baffin Bay onto the ice sheet are obstructed by barrier flows and the pressure gradient-driven katabatic regime along the western GrIS margin

The PiGeOn project: Protocol for a longitudinal study examining psychosocial, behavioural and ethical issues and outcomes in cancer tumour genomic profiling

© 2018 The Author(s). Background: Genomic sequencing in cancer (both tumour and germline), and development of therapies targeted to tumour genetic status, hold great promise for improvement of patient outcomes. However, the imminent introduction of genomics into clinical practice calls for better understanding of how patients value, experience, and cope with this novel technology and its often complex results. Here we describe a protocol for a novel mixed-methods, prospective study (PiGeOn) that aims to examine patients' psychosocial, cognitive, affective and behavioural responses to tumour genomic profiling and to integrate a parallel critical ethical analysis of returning results. Methods: This is a cohort sub-study of a parent tumour genomic profiling programme enrolling patients with advanced cancer. One thousand patients will be recruited for the parent study in Sydney, Australia from 2016 to 2019. They will be asked to complete surveys at baseline, three, and fivemonths. Primary outcomes are: knowledge, preferences, attitudes and values. A purposively sampled subset of patients will be asked to participate in three semi-structured interviews (at each time point) to provide deeper data interpretation. Relevant ethical themes will be critically analysed to iteratively develop or refine normative ethical concepts or frameworks currently used in the return of genetic information. Discussion: This will be the first Australian study to collect longitudinal data on cancer patients' experience of tumour genomic profiling. Findings will be used to inform ongoing ethical debates on issues such as how to effectively obtain informed consent for genomic profiling return results, distinguish between research and clinical practice and manage patient expectations. The combination of quantitative and qualitative methods will provide comprehensive and critical data on how patients cope with 'actionable' and 'non-actionable' results. This information is needed to ensure that when tumour genomic profiling becomes part of routine clinical care, ethical considerations are embedded, and patients are adequately prepared and supported during and after receiving results

Patient perspectives on molecular tumor profiling: "why wouldn't you?"

© 2019 The Author(s). Aim: This study explored the attitudes of patients with advanced cancer towards MTP and return of results, prior to undergoing genomic testing within a research program. Methods: Participants were recruited as part of the longitudinal PiGeOn (Psychosocial Issues in Genomics in Oncology) study involving patients with advanced/metastatic solid cancer who had exhausted therapeutic options and who were offered MTP in order to identify cognate therapies. Twenty patients, selected by purposive sampling, were interviewed around the time they gave consent to MTP. Interviews were audio recorded, transcribed and analysed using thematic analysis. Themes identified in the transcripts were cross-validated via qualitative responses to the PiGeOn study survey (n = 569; 63%). Results: All interviewed participants gave consent to MTP without reservation. Three themes were identified and further supported via the survey responses: (1) Obvious agreement to participate, primarily because of desire for new treatments and altruism. (2) The black box - while participant knowledge of genomics was generally poor, faith in their oncologists and the scientific process encouraged them to proceed with testing; and (3) Survival is the priority - receiving treatment to prolong life was the priority for all participants, and other issues such as identification of a germline variant were generally seen as ancillary. Conclusion: Having advanced cancer seemed to abrogate any potential concerns about MTP. Participants valued the research for varied reasons, but this was secondary to their priority to survive. While no negative attitudes toward MTP emerged, limitations in understanding of genomics were evident